Skip to content
Washington – Nigeria’s economic growth prospects for 2025 have been trimmed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Citing concerns over falling oil prices, the global lender lowered its Nigeria forecast, projecting slightly slower growth than previously expected.
In its April 2025 World Economic Outlook report, the IMF stated Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is now anticipated to grow by 3.0 percent this year. This is a slight downgrade from the 3.2 percent predicted earlier. The adjustment highlights worries about Nigeria’s reliance on oil exports, which heavily influence government revenue and foreign exchange earnings. Looking further ahead, the IMF sees growth slowing even more, to 2.7 percent in 2026.
External Balances and Inflation Concerns
While Nigeria currently enjoys a current account surplus (exporting more than it imports), the IMF report signals potential weakening ahead. The Fund estimates this surplus will shrink from 9.1 percent of GDP in 2024 down to 6.9 percent in 2025, and dip further to 5.2 percent in 2026.
Investment bank JP Morgan adds a note of caution, warning that Nigeria could slip into a current account deficit if oil prices stay below the crucial $60 per barrel mark needed to balance the budget. This warning comes despite Nigeria reporting a healthy balance of payments surplus ($6.83 billion) for 2024, largely thanks to strong goods exports.
Regarding inflation, the Nigeria forecast offers mixed signals. It projects average headline inflation will cool slightly to 26.5 percent in 2025 (down from 33.2 percent in 2024). However, the relief may be short-lived, with the IMF predicting a jump back up to 37.0 percent in 2026. Although Nigeria’s statistics bureau recently reported lower inflation after rebasing its index, upward pressure on prices persists, keeping the Central Bank focused on tight monetary policy.
Living Standards See Little Improvement
Perhaps most concerning for everyday Nigerians, the IMF report points to sluggish improvements in living standards. The Nigeria forecast predicts real output per person (per capita) will grow by a mere 0.6 percent in 2025. This minimal growth suggests limited progress in boosting the economic well-being of the average citizen.
Kayode Ojo
