Acceptance rate rises to 65% despite increased rejections as immigration backlog grows
OTTAWA, Canada – Canada turned down 1,596 asylum applications from Nigerians this year, new Immigration and Refugee Board data shows. What’s interesting, though, is that Nigeria’s overall acceptance rate actually improved to 65%, a shift that might signal changing attitudes or criteria.
The Numbers Tell a Mixed Story
Here’s what the latest IRB figures reveal: Nigerian asylum seekers submitted 3,548 claims through August 21. Out of those, 2,292 got approved. That’s a pretty substantial jump in success rates compared to what we’ve seen historically.
This 65% acceptance rate is quite a change from earlier years when rejections usually won the day. Between 2013 and 2024, Canada said no to 13,171 Nigerian asylum applications but approved 10,580. Not exactly encouraging odds.
“The data suggests changing patterns in how Canada evaluates Nigerian protection claims,” immigration analyst Maria Santos from Maple Crest Law told us. Though it’s worth asking – what exactly shifted?
Looking Back at the Patterns
Canada’s asylum system has been dealing with thousands of Nigerian cases for over a decade now. The yearly breakdown gets pretty dramatic:
2019 was brutal – 3,951 Nigerian applicants got turned away. That’s the highest on record. Things started looking up after that: 1,770 rejections in 2020, then 1,686 in 2021. By 2022, it dropped to 728. Last year? Just 811 denials.
Maple Crest Law’s analysis puts Nigeria in the company of Mexico, India, Haiti, and Colombia as top sources of asylum seekers. They estimated around 3,455 Nigerian claims in early 2025, pointing to Boko Haram violence and economic troubles as the main reasons people are leaving. Makes sense, really.
Where Everyone Ends Up
Most asylum seekers seem to land in Ontario and Alberta while they wait for decisions. The Immigration and Refugee Board grants protection when people meet those UN Convention refugee definitions or can show they need protection under Canadian law.
The 1951 UN Convention gets pretty specific about who qualifies as a refugee – basically anyone with a real fear of persecution because of race, nationality, religion, politics, or being part of a particular social group. That social group category covers sexual orientation, gender identity, women, and people living with HIV/AIDS.
The process usually starts when someone tells the Border Services Agency at entry points or reports to immigration officers. An officer decides if the claim is worth pursuing before sending it to the Refugee Protection Division. Sounds straightforward, but anyone who’s dealt with immigration knows it rarely is.
Why So Many Get Turned Away
Imaobong Ladipo-Sanusi runs the Women Trafficking and Child Labour Eradication Foundation, and she thinks irregular migration driven by economic hardship is behind most rejections.
“Most times, many Nigerians miss it when they don’t understand the laws governing refugee status as adopted in their chosen destination,” she told Sunday PUNCH. “Documentation is crucial because coming irregularly will get you rejected from their system.”
Her point about “safe, orderly and regular” migration makes sense, though it’s easier said than done when you’re fleeing violence or poverty. Still, she insists protection should be there for people who genuinely need it.
The System’s Breaking Point
Canada’s asylum system appears to be buckling under the weight of applications. Official records show 173,000 claims in 2024 – that’s a record. The first two months of 2025 saw about 19,660 more.
Applications may have eased up slightly this year, but we’re still way above pre-pandemic levels. The IRB keeps getting hammered for delays, and frankly, the backlog just keeps growing. It’s becoming a real problem.
How Nigeria Stacks Up Globally
Nigeria sits eighth on the list of countries with the most accepted claims in Canada. Here’s how the top 10 looks:
Turkey tops the list with 4,866 accepted claims. Mexico follows with 4,363, then Colombia at 3,340. Iran has 3,200, Pakistan 2,556, Haiti 2,211, Afghanistan 1,921, and Kenya rounds out the list with 1,653.
These numbers really highlight Canada’s role as a go-to destination for people fleeing conflict and economic instability. Whether that’s sustainable is another question entirely.
What This All Means Going Forward
The better acceptance rate for Nigerian asylum claims could mean Canada’s assessment criteria are evolving. Or maybe conditions in Nigeria have gotten bad enough to warrant more international protection. Economic instability and ongoing security threats from groups like Boko Haram certainly aren’t going anywhere.
Immigration experts think this trend shows Canada recognizing legitimate protection needs while still trying to screen out economic migrants. But honestly, the line between economic desperation and persecution isn’t always that clear-cut.
Whether this higher acceptance rate continues depends on a lot of factors, political climate in Canada, conditions in Nigeria, and how overwhelmed the system gets. For now, it seems like more Nigerians are getting the protection they’re seeking, which has to count for something.
PUNCH
